Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

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eadiaz
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Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby eadiaz » Sun Apr 02, 2017 2:45 pm

In economics, seasonality refers to a regular and predictable change to a data series that happens every calendar year. As an example, fireworks sales in the US see a spike every year on July 4th/Independence Day as consumers and municipalities use fireworks to celebrate.

For fun I have been looking at the prices of the used Cordoba C10s in near mint/b-stock/manufacturer refurbished condition without reported cracks. I think prices of C10s are one of many barometers of the guitar market supply and demand in US. Anecdotally, I've seen the following:
* Last year listing as low as $600- low 700s. On the b a y auction site I recall a very nice looking C10 cedar selling for $599 around October after 3 or so wks on the market. I think a number of other C10s sold in $600-630 range late last year.
* This year the C10 prices look to be higher in last month or so. Most offers are in $700-750 range. Prices seem higher with sale on the large auction site; sales are in low to mid $700s.

What seasonal spikes and troughs have you observed in the classical guitar market in the US and other countries? Are there times of the year when you have seen more supply of classical guitars or more demand for them?

My hypotheses (i.e. guesses) are below. Which ones do you agree or disagree with?

Demand:
* Spikes in winter holidays (e.g. Christmas) as guitars are given as gifts.
* Spikes some around start of the school year (Aug/Sept) as students buy guitars for classes.
* Spikes a little in the US in February and March when tax refunds are received.
* Lulls in summer months when US consumers are on summer vacation.

Supply:
* Large producers (Cordoba) and retailers probably stock up for the winter holidays.
* Students sell their used instruments after school ends in May/June.
* If retailers overstock for the winter holidays, supply could be high relative to demand in January. Maybe prices are lower then?
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Number 6
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby Number 6 » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:16 pm

I don't know about seasonality but economic market crashes will have an effect. During the 2008 crash many guitars were on the market for heavily discounted prices.

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eadiaz
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby eadiaz » Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:41 pm

Number 6--
Good point. Recessions and financial crashed may depress prices. Unemployment, foreclosures, business closings, credit crunches, etc. make it harder to buy. Thanks for responding.

(On a somewhat wood-related note, I read last December that prices of Christmas trees in the US were up. The average growing time of firs and pines to reach 6-8 feet is about 7-8 years. Why was the crop from 08-09 smaller than normal? Supposedly because tree farms faced financial difficulties during the 2007-09 planted less trees or went out of business.)
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Cervantes Concert Rodriguez, '08 (C/EIR)

Carlos
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby Carlos » Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:42 pm

Would you have a time serie dataset of prices over a few year (eg monthly data, or quarterly)? If you wish I could extract the seasonality using a statistical software.

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andreas777
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby andreas777 » Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:48 pm

My observation is that 'seasonality' doesn't have an impact on prices of used guitars, but only on offer and demand. For example, before Christmas the number of used guitars offered is much higher, but also the demand, so prices remain (more or less) unchanged. But I agree with Number 6, economic market situations and stock market levels have an impact on prices.
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Erik Zurcher
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby Erik Zurcher » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:17 pm

Classical guitars are not fast moving consumer goods. There is no seasonality in the classical guitar market.
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"While you try to master classical guitar, prepare for a slave's life: the guitar will forever be your master and you its slave".

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guitarseller345645
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby guitarseller345645 » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:04 am

This year the C10 prices look to be higher in last month or so. Most offers are in $700-750 range. Prices seem higher with sale on the large auction site; sales are in low to mid $700s.

Have to agree with this - and there is the Pitney Bowes Inc issue to consider.
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Guther
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Re: Seasonality in the Classical Guitar Market

Postby Guther » Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:31 pm

Erik Zurcher wrote:Classical guitars are not fast moving consumer goods. There is no seasonality in the classical guitar market.


I agree that cyclicality tends to describe the tie to demand better than seasonality, at least with luthier-built guitars.

Maybe seasonality impacts lower-end, massed-produced instruments.

I think the thought of the thread is interesting but there are multiple things that can lead to demand. For instance, I wonder what impact CITES will have on the future value of foreign instruments that have already made it across the pond...
Guther


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